Confirmation Bias, or Peter Popoff Picked a Peck of Pious Patsies

In his excellent post on cognitive dissonance, Wes discussed one of the ways in which faith -- in anything -- is inherently dangerous. Today I'd like to discuss the other great danger that faces anyone who abandons reason.

If cognitive dissonance is the tendency to hold onto beliefs past their usefulness, then confirmation bias is its perfect counterpart. Confirmation bias is the idea that people will more readily believe new ideas that fit their existing beliefs than those that don't. This makes sense. If I told you that yesterday I fell upward, you would be much, much more skeptical than if I told you the opposite. In this case, your skepticism would be well placed. You have a wealth of experience to suggest that gravity does not behave that way.

Unfortunately, confirmation bias is an overarching process of consciousness, and is not limited only to rational propositions, or those areas where we have real experience to draw from. In short, you are always more likely to see what you were expecting to. This holds even truer for beliefs based in faith, as those ideas are not challenged rationally at all.

The danger, then, lies in the fact that any person with irrational beliefs is more likely to accept additional beliefs that fit his existing worldview, regardless of any reason to do so, and to reject outright those which do not conform.

I would like to illustrate this point with an example. In the late eighties, an itinerant preacher, evangelist, and faith healer named Peter Popoff rose to prominence in the American christian community. Like many before him and since, he traveled the country preaching at open air and tent revivals, holding healing services in Ramada ball rooms, and preaching his interpretation of the Christian faith to anyone who would listen. Like his contemporaries Benny Hinn and Creflo Dollar, he was a deeply charismatic speaker and led a successful ministry.

Unlike other similar ministers, though, Popoff was truly remarkable. He was known for his connection to a higher power that no one else could match. Standing in front of thousands of people, he would receive divine information in spasms of rapture. He would call out the names of sick people in the audience, then rattle off the afflictions they suffered, their home towns, even the names of loved ones who were praying for them. Where others laid hands on the sick and prayed, Popoff got immediate, incredible results. He would raise the crippled from wheelchairs. He instantly healed incurable ailments like Alzheimer's and rheumatoid arthritis.

Here was the closest thing to a true prophet that modern America had ever seen. He attracted followers in the millions, and moneys in the hundreds of millions. The few inquiries into his abilities seemed to back his incredible gifts: none of the people healed or called upon at his services had any existing relationship with him.

Now take a guess as to what's going on here. Here was a man who was literally doing the impossible, and was being taken at his word. It seems almost unbelievable. Peter Popoff was accepted, almost without challenge, simply because his ideas fit a larger, existing framework.

Of course, Popoff had no special abilities. I say "of course," but it was not until more than two decades of his chicanery had passed before anyone looked closely enough to figure it out. James Randi*, a stage magician and skeptic, unmasked the truth:

1.) Popoff's wife and assistants worked the crowd beforehand, passing out "Prayer Cards" on which supplicants were asked to write down specifically what they were praying for.
2.) This info was relayed to Popoff by a radio earpiece.
3.) Anyone attending a service who had a slight difficulty walking was offered a "courtesy" wheelchair.
4.) Only those in Popoff's own chairs were ever raised from one.
5.) There was no backing at all to his claims to have ever cured anyone from cancer, Alzheimers, diabetes, etc.

This should have been obvious. Here was a man who claimed ability that could not exist within our understanding of the world. By that reasoning, an enormous amount of proof should have been required to accept his claim. This was not the case.

Popoff's followers already had a belief in his abilities, through the stories of Christ, the apostles, endless saints and relics, etc. They were primed and ready to believe anyone who showed them what they already believed. They were so comfortable with this outrageous lie that they risked their own health and made a scam artist a billionaire.

So take care with your beliefs. There's a pervasive argument for faith that usually starts out, "But if it's not hurting anyone...". It is. It is hurting your ability to accurately and adequately judge new ideas, and it is prejudicing you to all new experience. Watch out for confirmation bias.

Be well.


* James Randi is a personal hero of mine when it comes to skepticism and rational thought. Please visit his site at Randi.org for lots of useful information. And please support the tough old guy, he's been fighting the good fight since before a lot of us were born.